Quiz results

You should read this page only after taking the over-confidence test. 

If you want to do this in the recommended order, start here: http://www.tim-richardson.net/mambo/content/view/73/1/

 You can jump straight to the quiz:

  http://tim-richardson.net/misc/estimation_quiz.html

The test does not guage what you know, but your evaluation of what you know. 

You were invited to choose a range aiming for a 90% chance of getting each question right.

94% of the time, you would get at least 8 correct.

This probably isn't what happened, though. We seem to be biased towards over confidence.

There is a discussion of this on page 139 of The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.

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Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved.