Every day we need to make judgments because we don't have a perfect understanding of the world (how long will that car take to get to where I am standing?). It is important to have a feeling for how good your estimates are (how reliable they are). 

I have made a test of over-confidence in estimation based on a famous study. and it's a fun and possibly surprising way to spend five minutes. As Donald Rumsfeld said, we all know we have "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns". This little quiz will investigate how you good you are at telling the difference. Follow this link to start the 10 question quiz. 

or read this wikipedia article to learn more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

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Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved.