Supporting Collingwood is the most sensible choice for football fans looking to make rational choices.The research is unclear whether this reflects a genetic superiority among Collingwood supporters, or whether it reflects the normal outcomes of rational choices where individuals look to maximise what economists call utility. It's an interesting case of the nature-vs-nurtue discussion.
If you support Australian Football, you enjoy watching games. If you support Collingwood, you will be able to watch more games, because Collingwood has the longest average football season of any AFL team. The longest possible season is when a team plays in the Grand Final (regardless of winning or losing it). Collingwood has reached 43 Grand Finals, and two of them have been draws (meaning a replay and an even longer season. The 1990 grand final was not a draw, but the season was a week longer because of the Collingwood-West Coast draw which under the rules of the time meant a replay of that game.
Essendon and Carlton are the next closest choices, but they've only reached 29 Grand Finals, and the gap between them and Collingwood has grown in the past 20 years.
Further, it's well known that into each life some rain must fall. The best way to appreciate the amazing achievement of winning a grand final is to be taken so close and then to fail at the final step. After all, we celebrate Hillary's climb of Everest due to those who failed earlier. Collingwood has carefully optimised its performance so that it wins a grand final on about every third attempt. We can conclude, looking at the huge supporter base, that this is the ideal ratio. Clubs looking to maximise performance by finishing last and receiving draft picks to prepare for a moonshot five years later are following the wrong approach. In terms of maximising outcomes, it's better to over-achieve and be outclassed in the grand final two thirds of the time.
So it the stereotype that Collingwood supporters are irrational is completely wrong. In fact, ironically, it is the observers making these claims who demonstrate irrationality. Some emotional reaction to black and white is apparently clouding their judgement.
Collingwood supporters are in fact the most rational; once again, we see the proof of crowdsouring. Of course, most Collingwood supporters choose the club at a young age, or may even be socialised by parental influence. In this case, it is hard to maintain that superior decision making is the explanation. That leaves only the possibility that Collingwood supporters have a genetic superiority which is passed on from generation to generation. This needs more research.
